Projected standings - 14U Lemieux
220 division games left, played out 10,000 times.
Team W-L-T-OTL PTS Proj PTS 1st Top 14 Finish 1 → 28
9-1-1-0 19 59.7 65% 100%
9-1-0-0 18 58.9 35% 100%
10-2-0-0 20 52.1 <1% 100%
7-3-0-0 14 42.5 0% 100%
9-4-0-0 18 40.1 0% 100%
8-5-1-0 17 38.8 0% 100%
6-4-1-0 13 35.6 0% >99%
4-5-1-1 10 35.6 0% >99%
3-7-0-0 6 34.7 0% >99%
7-0-0-0 14 31.3 0% 100%
4-5-0-1 9 30.0 0% 97%
5-6-0-0 10 26.4 0% 80%
2-0-0-0 4 25.0 0% 75%
6-0-0-0 12 23.9 0% 63%
6-0-0-0 12 23.3 0% 44%
2-9-0-0 4 22.5 0% 35%
6-2-0-0 12 19.7 0% <1%
3-9-1-0 7 19.1 0% 6%
5-1-0-0 10 12.5 0% 0%
1-9-0-0 2 12.2 0% <1%
2-4-0-1 5 9.9 0% 0%
2-4-0-0 4 9.4 0% 0%
2-11-0-0 4 8.2 0% 0%
2-9-0-0 4 8.1 0% 0%
1-8-0-0 2 7.7 0% 0%
1-10-0-0 2 7.5 0% 0%
3-1-0-0 6 6.0 0% 0%
0-5-1-0 1 3.6 0% 0%
2 remaining games are against teams outside the division and are left out: the two sides are rated on different scales, so no probability can be read from them.
Chance 0% to 100%
The finish strip shows each place from first to last; tap or hover a square for its chance.
How this works

Every division game still to be played is played out 10,000 times. A game ends tied as often as this division's finished games have (2%); otherwise a team rated Ka beats one rated Kb with probability Ka / (Ka + Kb), and 2% of those wins come in overtime, as they have so far. Points are counted as the standings count them: two for a win, one for a tie or an overtime loss.

Places go by points. Teams level on points are ordered at random, since there is no tiebreaker on record to apply, so a real tiebreaker could swing a close race. Ratings are held where they are today: they do not rise or fall with the simulated results, and games against teams outside the division are left out. How KRACH works →

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